UPDATE DUTCH POLITICS: Right-wing Eurosceptic Forum for Democracy wins provincial elections

Yesterday (20 March, 2019) the provincial elections took place in the Netherlands

About 56% of eligible voters went to the polls and voted for 12 provincial councils, which are in turn responsible for electing the senate (on 27 May this year). These elections were considered critical for the majority of the current coalition parties, including VVD (Liberal Conservatives) of Prime Minister Rutte.

Huge win Forum for Democracy

The most remarkable result is the huge win of Forum for Democracy (FvD), a right-wing and Eurosceptic party led by Thierry Baudet. Where FvD gained two seats in the lower house in 2017, according to the most recent exit-polls they are set to become the biggest party in Senate (14,4%). Although most polls put them at 8 seats in senate (which would already have been an incredible achievement), they are now set to gain 12 seats. FvD is known for its scepticisms, regarding the EU (pro-Nexit) and climate change.

Coalition loses majority in senate

The current coalition government is likely to lose its majority in senate; the VVD will lose just one seat, but its coalition partners CDA (Christian Democrats) and D66 (Liberal Democrats) are also set to lose seats (CDA from 12 to 9 seats and D66 from 10 to 6 seats). Coalition partner Christian Union (CU) is set to gain one seat, from 3 to 4. This shift in balance for the coalition means it might be harder to pass bills in senate and there are only two parties big enough to help them reach majorities – Forum for Democracy and GroenLinks (Green Left).

Senate elections on 27 May

The provincial councils will elect the senate on 27 May this year and the new senators are to be installed on 11 June. After the European elections in May this year, the next elections concern the lower house – in 2021.

The overview below shows the preliminary results of yesterday’s provincial elections (# seats) – compared to the results of 2015. It should be taken into account that these figures are preliminary – not all votes have been processed so far.

• FvD – Forum for Democracy = 12 seats (14,4% – N/A in 2015)
• VVD – Liberal Conservatives = 12 seats (13,8% – 13 in 2015)
• CDA – Christian Democrats = 9 seats (12 in 2015)
• D66 – Liberal Democrats = 6 seats (10 in 2015)
• PVV – Freedom Party = 5 seats (9 in 2015)
• SP – Socialist Party = 4 seats (9 in 2015)
• PvdA – Social Democrats = 7 seats (8 in 2015)
• GroenLinks – Greens = 9 seats (4 in 2015)
• ChristenUnie – Christian Conservatives = 4 seats (3 in 2015)
• Partij voor de Dieren – Animal Party = 3 seats (2 in 2015)
• SGP – Christian Conservatives = 2 seats (2 in 2015)
• 50PLUS – Elderly Party = 0 seats (N/A in 2015)
• DENK – Pro-immirant Party = 0 seats (N/A in 2015)
• OSF – Independent Senate Party = 0 seats (1 in 2015)