Research: PVV MPs do well on Twitter – CDA MPs much less so

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of our society. Public life takes place largely online, as does the work in the House of Representatives and the election campaigns. For election campaigns, this means that creating support and gathering votes is no longer done by going out on the street and talking to people, but the connection must be sought online. Social media play an important role in this, and the various political parties are also fully committed to this. But how successful are the various political parties on social media? And how do you use social media most effectively – for instance as part of a public affairs campaign?

Based on our data, Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant analyzed the online reach of the party leaders in February. However, we not only analyzed the online activity of all MPs, but also of the party leaders and candidates of the parties with more than 5 seats. It appears that, on average, the MPs of the PVV (Freedom Party), D66 (Liberal Democrats) and GroenLinks (Green Party) are the most influential online. The MPs of CDA (Christian Democrats), SP (Socialist Party), PvdA (Social Democrats) and VVD (Conservative Liberals) score considerably less on online influence. Curious about our further analyses of other MPs and candidates? Then read on!

 

Online influence of politicians: the numbers tell the tale

Besides the fact that politicians, candidates and political parties can influence voters through social media, social media can also be used for advocacy. In other words, social media behavior can be interesting for organizations engaged in public affairs. Because of digitalization, advocacy is no longer limited to writing position papers, for example, but social media and online tools can also be used conveniently. Because of digitalization, advocacy is becoming more and more open. After all, anyone can view messages on social media, but can also check whether they are possibly fake accounts.

Politicians have the opportunity, thanks to social media, to strengthen ties with their constituencies and stay up to date on the opposition and relevant stakeholders. The complexity of policy making and the variety of stakeholders make the opportunities for using social media diverse. Active members of political parties, candidates and politicians are often active on social media and are interesting for an organization to engage in low-threshold conversations, or to effectively bring points of view to the attention of the public. The professional measurement of online influence and the use of online profiles are indispensable for an effective strategy.

For example, online influence on Twitter is measured by looking at how many followers someone has and how much discussion usually arises around that person. This leads to an influence score that says something about the reach generated by his or her online activity. If a politician with a high influence score shares the message of an organization many people will see this message. Of course, the influence score does not say anything about the sentiment, because a politician can also have a high influence score because this person evokes many negative reactions, for example because of spreading controversial plans.

 

Four profiles to classify online activity of politicians

When it comes to the social media strategy of politicians (and other stakeholders), there are large differences to be discovered in how they use their online channels. By using a professional analysis these differences can be mapped out. In order to do this in a structured way, Public Matters categorized the online activity of politicians into four different profiles.

  • The Inactive: Some politicians are characterized by relative absence. If this person already has a profile, it is hardly used. We therefore call this person The Inactive and it is less relevant for public affairs.
  • The Observer: Politicians who do use their social media, but mainly to keep themselves informed of current events are called The Observer. The Observer will not often post an opinion on social media, but can be informed of stakeholder positions online.
  • The Professional: The Professional is a politician who uses social media not only to observe, but also to share a lot about his or her own work. This profile is very relevant to public affairs because it allows for interaction.
  • The Influencer: The Influencer is very active and not only shares relevant messages about their work, but also engages in online conversation and can potentially be of great value in spreading a message. However, there is also a risk that The Influencer may take hold of a message in a negative way.

These four profiles are combined with an influence score measured by the number of followers, reactions and interactions. This provides a complete picture of the online influence of politicians and allows for an appropriate public affairs strategy. For example, an Influencer profile combined with a high influence score can be very useful for bringing points of view to the attention of a wider audience. But when the Influencer takes a different point of view, this can backfire negatively on the person or organization it concerns. A well thought-out stakeholder strategy and approach is therefore extremely important.

 

How do our MPs score on social media?

Public Matters mapped the online activity of all members of the House of Representatives on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram in July 2020, and repeated this measurement in January 2021 for the party leaders and top candidates. What are the differences between different politicians and their parties? Which MPs and which parties have the most influence online? Below we analyze the activity and influence of candidates and MPs on Twitter.

Of the parties with more than 5 seats in the House of Representatives, the PVV has, on average, the most online influence with an influence score of 1002.79. It is striking that much of the PVV’s traffic comes from its own party members and that, for example, PVV party leader Geert Wilders is often retweeted by party members. The influence of the PVV leader on Twitter rises high above the other politicians. This is followed by D66 with an average influence score of 798.95 and GroenLinks with an average score of 537.61. Forum for Democracy (FvD) has the highest average score with an influence score of 3435. This party has only two MPs and the average is very high due to the online influence of party leader and parliamentary chairman Thierry Baudet. Party leaders always have a disproportionately high influence score and for this reason we only included parties with at least 5 seats or more in the ranking.

The figures show that 29% of the surveyed MPs are characterized as Influencers. A good example of this is D66, where party leader Sigrid Kaag and runner-up Rob Jetten both manage to get a lot of interaction on their profiles. In most parties, the party leader rises above all other candidates with Geert Wilders as the big outlier. On average, PVV MPs are more often the Professional and not an Influencer and often retweet the account of Wilders, but do not often enter the online debate. Only at D66 do Kaag and Jetten go fairly equal in terms of influence because of Jetten’s role as parliamentary leader. Member of the House of Representatives Bente Becker, who is fourth on the election list for the VVD, also has a high influence score.

What explains the differences between MPs from the CDA and the PVV?

The online influence and activity of politicians can to some extent be linked to the voter profile of different parties, the topics they tweet about, how polarizing or controversial messages are and finally the social media strategy of a party.

The age of a party’s supporters seems to matter. The younger generation is more active on social media than older voters. VVD, CDA and PvdA attract relatively older voters and have a relatively low influence score. GroenLinks and D66, with their high influence scores, focus more on a younger audience. Finally, the high influence scores of populist parties FvD and PVV seem to be in line with Trump’s tactics in the 2016 election. The more attention you attract, the more influence you gain. The messages are often controversial and evoke reactions from both supporters and opponents. FvD’s score is particularly striking, given its low number of seats. There ain’t such a thing as bad publicity.

The social media strategy of a political party also seems to play a role because politicians sometimes receive support from their political party for their online presence. Some parliamentary parties employ more social media experts and spokesmen, and this can translate back into the online influence of the MPs.

 

Cabinet formation as a starting point for a good digital public affairs campaign

The elections on March 17 will bring in new MPs who may be unfamiliar with an organization’s points of view, but of course the formation of the government also determines policy for the next four years. The ideal time to start working on a digital public affairs strategy. But how do you ensure that an interest is translated into concrete policy? Social media offer an additional channel to proclaim a message and bring it to the attention of the right stakeholders. From informing policy makers and influencers to influencing the sentiment regarding a specific issue with the help of social media monitoring tools – this is exactly where Public Matters can help.

Justification of data:

  • The influence scores and number of followers of House members were retrieved in July 2020;
  • The influence scores and number of followers of the list leaders were retrieved in January 2021;
  • The influence scores are based on the period October 26th 2017 (taking office of the Rutte III cabinet) through July 2020 or January 2021.

Authors: Tom Kunzler & Bas Batelaan, with contributions from Sieme Gewald and Tessel Schouwink

Campaign leaders debate Dutch elections

The elections for the Lower House of Parliament are just around the corner. As is tradition, the Machiavelli Foundation organizes the campaign leaders’ debate the morning after the elections in which the campaign is reviewed thoroughly. The board of the Machiavelli Foundation cordially invites you to attend this breakfast debate in Perscentrum Nieuwspoort on Thursday 18 March, from 09.00 onwards.

During the debate, campaign leaders of various parties will discuss the highs and lows of the campaign in the run-up to the Lower House elections. What was the strategy and what objectives did the campaign teams have? How did they want to realise them and did they succeed? All these questions and more will be discussed in detail under the guidance of Wilco Boom (parliamentary reporter of NOS radio).

This year, due to the coronation measures, the campaign leaders’ debate is not physically accessible to the public, but can be followed live on NPO Politiek from 09.00 hours.

Kromkommer and the European School Fruit Scheme

Kromkommer co-founder Chantal Engelen has been working for equal rights for all fruits and vegetables since 2012. Kromkommer (a Dutch wordplay on the words cucumber and crooked) works in many ways to ensure that “wonky” fruit and vegetables find their way onto supermarket shelves. What’s learnt in the cradle, lasts till the tomb: Kromkommer creates lesson plans for elementary schools (‘Save the Krommies!’), and launched the children’s book ‘De Krommies – Meneer Tweebeenpeen’ and ‘Kromme’ fruit and vegetable toys. By introducing children to wonky fruits and vegetables at a young age, Kromkommer hopes to contribute to the prevention of food waste.

Public Matters supported Kromkommer in achieving this goal in 2020 – and now looks back on this eventful period with Chantal.

Authentic voice

“In a way, Kromkommer doesn’t do ‘lobbying’ at all,” Chantal begins. “What we have been trying to do since our founding is inspire people to look at the quality of fruits and vegetables differently: from farmers to stores, from restaurants to consumers – and politicians. With the latter target group, however, the rules of the game are somewhat different. But also, therein, we want to keep the authentic Kromkommer voice at the forefront.” In 2018, for example, Kromkommer was still standing at the House of Representatives with a carrot costume and some crooked kiwis – and as such managed to make its first contact with members of parliament.

Influencing the School Fruit Scheme to prevent food waste

Over the past year Kromkommer started working on quality standards within the EU School Fruit Scheme. They discovered that the Dutch implementation of the EU School Fruit Scheme included the requirement that delivered fruit had to be of quality standard 1. This, even though equally healthy and tasty quality standard 2 fruit and vegetables could contribute to the education of pupils. “It was useful to have some insight into the political process and to find the right nuances. The first time I sat at a roundtable discussion for example, I didn’t know that taking pictures was prohibited or how such a conversation works in reality. It’s nice to have someone take you through these do’s and dont’s.”

Corona was a challenge, but the existing contacts in The Hague helped to achieve Kromkommer’s goal. Even though online solutions are very helpful, human contact is what makes the most impact. Kromkommer is also known for its fine campaigns, often accompanied by playful outfits and objects. These are more difficult to translate into a digital conversation. Nevertheless, after repeated efforts by Kromkommer, minister Schouten announced in October 2020 that she wants to adjust the school fruit scheme. And that’s good news: as of 2021, suppliers will receive a subsidy if they supply wonky fruit and vegetables. In addition, the minister said she is dedicated to work within the EU to get this done in other countries as well. Kromkommer’s first goal has thus been achieved: namely, to create the conditions for change.

Eye on the future

And now Kromkommer will concentrate on the future. They want to continue to focus on offering lesson plans in schools once the circumstances permit it. Also, they continue to keep a close eye on the school fruit process.

Chantal’s tip to smaller organizations that want to enter the lobbying field: “Stick to who you are and make this your strength. You will stand out if you do not play by all the ‘rules’. In doing so, it helps to be sure how the game is played in the political arena – just don’t lose your identity.”

Pro bono advice by Public Matters

Public Matters advises organisations on how to acquire a position in the political, public, or administrative arena. We believe it is important that professional advocacy is not only reserved for companies, branch organisations or governments. We are also happy to support financially less able organizations that pursue a social interest and can use an extra push. Based on our social commitment, we assist various organizations with pro bono advice every year. You can apply until February 12, 2021.

UPDATE DUTCH POLITICS Cabinet Rutte resigns following childcare benefit scandal

Today, Prime Minister Mark Rutte will offer the resignation of his Cabinet to King Willem-Alexander, following a parliamentary report on a childcare benefit scandal, involving parents who were wrongly accused of defrauding the childcare benefit system.

In the report “Unprecedented Injustice”, a Parliamentary Inquiry Committee concluded, among other things, that fundamental principles of the rule of law were violated by the Dutch Tax Authority. Legislative implementation to fight fraud leading to these violations was not sufficiently overseen by several Cabinet members, which is now one of the reasons for the Cabinet to resign. The consequences of the resignation – in particular how the outgoing Cabinet will deal with the COVID-crisis – will become clear in the next few days.

What happened!?

The childcare benefit scandal is a political affair in which approximately 26,000 parents became unjustly victim of suspected fraud with the childcare allowance and/or became victims of a hard fraud approach by the Tax Administration. The result was that many of these parents found themselves in significant financial difficulty, in some cases even bankruptcy and uncertainty for many years. Many families were pursued for fraud before the courts, ordered to repay benefits and denied the right for appeal from 2012 on.

This came to light in September 2018 and subsequently led to the resignation of state secretary of Finance Menno Snel (D66). Current Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD) was head of the ministerial committee against fraud at that time. Current minister of Economic Affairs Eric Wiebes (VVD) was state secretary for Finance. The Parliamentary Inquiry Committee reports he misinformed the House of Representatives about the issue. In addition, Lodewijk Asscher (PvdA), then minister for Social Affairs and currently opposition leader of the Social Democrats in the House of Representatives, was also held responsible. Asscher announced on January 14 to resign over the affair as political leader for the upcoming elections. The government has apologized and in 2020 set aside compensation of over 500 million euros.

Caretaker Cabinet

When Prime Minister Rutte – who said earlier this week that the VVD was to opposed dissolving the current coalition – has offered the resignation of his Cabinet to the King, his Cabinet becomes a so-called caretaker cabinet. A caretaker Cabinet with currently four ruling parties, has the same powers as a regular cabinet. When the Prime Minister offers the resignation of his cabinet, the King asks the Prime Minister “to do whatever is deemed necessary in the interest of the Kingdom”. In practice, this means that the Cabinet only deals with “current affairs” – policies that are urgent and not controversial. It is the House of Representatives that decides what is urgent and not controversial. The House already would have ended its formal session on February 12 due to the upcoming national elections and campaign recess. It seems likely that in the coming months the focus of the Cabinet remains primarily on COVID-related issues and that most other topics will be declared controversial. Prior to today’s resignation, opposition parties PvdA and GroenLinks have already announced to support a caretaker Cabinet fighting the COVID-pandemic.

Elections on 17 March 2021

When a Prime Minister offers the resignation of his cabinet to the King, new elections need to be held no later than three months after the King has signed the so-called dissolution decree. Since the elections were already scheduled for 17 March 2021 and this date falls within this three-month period, this date is expected to be maintained. After the elections, the Cabinet will maintain a caretaker status until a cabinet is formed. Which parties will form a new Cabinet depends on the election results. Thus far the VVD of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the PVV/Party for Freedom of Geert Wilders and the CDA/Christian Democrats with the new political leader Wopke Hoekstra, are doing well in the polls.

Four new colleagues join Public Matters

The Public Matters Team continues to grow! To realise this growth four new colleagues have recently joined our office in The Hague: Machteld van Weede, Teeuwes Middelbrink, Mitchell van Bekkum and Marnix Kleinjan. In addition, there have been several internal promotions: Lieuwe Burger recently became Consultant, and Tom Kunzler and Nick Spier became Senior Consultants.

About our new colleagues

Machteld previously worked as a communications consultant at the trade association FNLI and the consultancy firm BMC. She has completed a master’s degree in History from the University of Utrecht and did several internships, at VNG, Raadslid.Nu and VGS (professional association for municipal secretaries). As Junior Consultant Machteld supports and advises various clients in different sectors.

Teeuwes has gained public affairs experience at ENGIE and at a consultancy firm, and is an active member of the Jonge Democraten (political youth organization). Furthermore, he is involved in JongRES, where he has worked on the regional implementation of the Dutch Climate Change Agreement. Teeuwes has a master’s degree in Public Administration from the University of Leiden, and at Public Matters he mainly focusses on clients in the financial and legal sector.

Mitchell previously gained experience in public affairs & communications at an international consultancy firm and has worked in the financial sector. He is active for a local branch of D66 and obtained degrees in European Studies (Ba) and European Policy (Ma) at the University of Amsterdam. At Public Matters, he advises clients in various sectors, with a focus on the healthcare sector.

Before joining Public Matters, Marnix was advisor European Affairs at Detailhandel Nederland. Because of his knowledge of European policy, he mainly advises clients on issues such as digital services, competition and international trade & taxation at Public Matters. Marnix completed internships at the public affairs department of Heineken Netherlands, at Clingendael and at the Dutch embassy in Paris. He holds a degree in political science (Msc) at the University of Amsterdam and Leiden University College The Hague (Ba).

Scientists Koopmans and Gommers receive Machiavelli Award 2020

The Machiavelli Award 2020 has been awarded to Marion Koopmans, professor of virology, and Diederik Gommers, chairman of the Dutch Society for Intensive Care. This was announced today by the Board of the Machiavelli Foundation. The award is granted annually for a remarkable achievement in the field of public communication.

“Koopmans and Gommers receive the prize because of their relentless efforts to make the science about the coronavirus accessible to a broad public. Enthusiastically and tirelessly, they are able time and again to distinguish facts and fables about the virus in an understandable language”, according to the jury report.

“The deliberate search for dialogue with doubters of science and opponents of policy has contributed to a greater understanding, especially among young people”, continues the jury report. “It is to Koopmans and Gommers’ credit that they have made informing a broad public their vocation alongside their daily work in the so urgent fight against the coronavirus. A vocation that both exercise with great self-evidence and skill”.

The award will be presented on Monday 15 February by Marja Wagenaar, chairperson of the Machiavelli Foundation, in Press Centre Nieuwspoort (The Hague). It is the 32nd time that the award will be granted. Due to the corona measures, the award ceremony will not be physically accessible to the public this year, but can be followed live from 17.00 hours via NPO Politiek.

Previous prize winners included Elliot Higgins of journalism collective Bellingcat, “the endangered mayor” Jos Wienen, SheDecides, Hugo Borst & Carin Gaemers, the Dutch Safety Investigation Board, RTL Nederland, Mayor Eberhard van der Laan, Bauke Vaatstra, H.K.H. Princess Máxima, national coach Bert van Marwijk and investigative journalist Jeroen Smit.

Daan Heerma van Voss, writer and journalist, will give the annual Machiavelli lecture, entitled: “In defence of the conspiracy theory. A story about chaos, fear and pizza”.

Three new colleagues join Public Matters team

Recently, three new colleagues have joined the Public Matters team – Siri de Vrijer, Eef Brands and Anita Schmale. Siri and Eef start as Junior Consultants and Anita starts as Consultant.

Siri previously worked as a strategic advisor at consultancy firm &MAES, and is chairperson of the alumni board of the National Think Tank Foundation. She has a combined master’s degree in European History at the University of Leiden, Paris-Sorbonne & Oxford. Because of her affinity with technological advancements and innovation, Siri has a focus on the platform economy.

Eef has gained experience in public affairs at the Consumers’ Association. In addition, she was full-time vice-chair of the VIDIUS student union in Utrecht for a year. Here she also completed her master’s degree in History of Politics and Society. At Public Matters, she will support clients in various sectors, with a focus on infrastructure and mobility.

Anita has gained a lot of experience at the Nederlands Debat Instituut in strategic communication and advising on important meetings with stakeholders. She is also chairperson of pop venue De Helling. She has a background in American Studies and obtained her master’s degree from Utrecht University. She is a true generalist and uses her broad knowledge at Public Matters to advise and advance various clients.

In the middle of a very busy election year we are very happy with this necessary expansion of our Team and we wish Siri, Eef and Anita all the best!

Well-attended Public Matters Webinar ‘The Dutch lobby in Brussels’ offers interesting perspectives

On 19 October 2020 Public Matters organized another webinar ‘The Dutch lobby in Brussels’. Guest speaker Maarten Smit, Head of Economic Affairs at the Dutch Permanent Representation in Brussels, gave participants interesting insights into how Brussels works. Among other things, he discussed the way in which EU policies are being developed, what role member states like the Netherlands play in this, and how stakeholders can best represent their interests.

Public Matters supports organisations regarding representing their interests in Brussels. From our Brussels office, we keep a close eye on policy developments, which enables us to advise our clients in the best possible way.

Public Matters to collaborate with Van Heuvelen Strategies in Washington DC

Public Matters expands its activities to the United States, in addition to its current offices in The Hague and Brussels, and collaborations with international networks worldwide. As part of the further growth of the agency, this is now being expanded with a collaboration with Van Heuvelen Strategies in Washington DC.

In the Netherlands and Brussels, Public Matters supports many clients with interests and business activities in the United States. By cooperating with Van Heuvelen Strategies, Public Matters will be better able to support these clients, anticipating on transatlantic issues in both Europe and the United States.

Strengthening the link with Washington DC also offers the opportunity to advise clients even better on (the impact of) the upcoming US elections in November. Offering a unique opportunity to actively exchange trends and knowledge in the field of public affairs between the United States and Europe.

UPDATE DUTCH POLITICS: Government announces stimulus package on Budget Day

Package including SME profit tax cut and 20 billion euro investment fund to contribute to 3,5% GDP growth in 2021.

On Budget Day (known as ‘Prinsjesdag’), the third Tuesday of September, the Dutch government announces its plans and ambitions for the coming year. This year, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, King Willem-Alexander did not travel to the Hall of Knights in the Glass Coach to read his Speech. Instead, he has delivered his speech from the Grand Church in The Hague (and travelled by car).

Later today the Minister of Finance (Wopke Hoekstra) presents the government budget for the upcoming year, which will be followed by a cycle of parliamentary debates, lasting until the beginning of December. These debates are expected to be very political and heated – due to the upcoming national elections (17 March 2021).

Key message from this years’ King’s Speech is that the Cabinet will allocate significant budget to stimulate the economy. In addition, the King warns that the country should be prepared for a significant economic crisis following the COVID-19 pandemic. But there will be no cuts next year, because that would only make the crisis worse. And due to the austerity policies of recent years and the strong foundations of the Dutch economy, there are “sufficient buffers” to absorb the impact of the crisis.

Earlier, the Ministers of Finance and Economic Affairs presented an investment fund of €20bln to strengthen the Dutch economy. This fund will be managed by the Minister of Finance, and the Minister of Economic Affairs will lead a committee to assess proposals and requests for this fund.

Key elements of the King’s Speech & Government budget 2021:

  • The economy is expected to grow by 3.5 percent next year, after a decline of 5 percent this year due to the COVID-19 crisis.
  • National debt will increase to 62 percent of GDP.
  • Purchasing power is expected to increase by 0.8 percent. Working people in particular will be able to buy a bit more: their purchasing power will increase by 1.2 percent.
  • Unemployment is expected to reach 5.9 percent next year (from 3.6 percent per May 2020).
  • The previously promised reduction in profit tax for large companies is cancelled. In addition, tax evasion will be tackled more vigorously.
  • SME profit tax is to be lowered. This reduction in the corporate income tax rate had already been announced earlier and is now turning out somewhat differently than expected. The threshold between the high (25 percent) and the low rate (16.5 percent) will be €400.000,- of profit (currently: €200.000,-).
  • There will be a tax deduction to stimulate investment. Under this so-called ‘Job-related Investment Discount’ costs for investments can be deducted from payroll tax.
  • The self-employed tax deduction will be reduced faster. However, this will be at the expense of freelancers, who will see their self-employed tax deduction decrease by a further almost €2.000,- in the long run. In exchange, the labor discount will be increased by a total of €500mln, from which all workers will benefit. In addition, the rate in the first income tax bracket will decrease by approximately 0.2 percentage points (at a cost of €500mln). Because self-employed persons benefit from both measures, they will not lose out, while salaried employees will gain a bit.
  • A second ‘corona bonus’ for healthcare personnel will be granted (€500,-) and an additional €100mln from the healthcare budget will be spent on reducing the work and regulatory burden.
  • The 2 percent tax over the purchase price of their property for first time buyers will be terminated.
  • A CO2-tax for industry will be implemented – regarding which more details will be communicated later today.

The full King’s speech (in English) can be viewed via this link.