UPDATE DUTCH POLITICS: Liberal Rob Jetten set to become next PM after tight elections

A tight race has unfolded in the Netherlands following one of the most unpredictable election campaigns in years. Either D66 (Liberal Democrats) or PVV (Right-wing populists) is projected to emerge as the largest party. However, with many parties ruling out cooperation with the PVV, D66 leader Rob Jetten has become the most likely candidate to serve as the next Prime Minister.

Highlights

• With 97.7% of the votes counted, yesterday’s general election in the Netherlands (29 October 2025) has delivered an exceptionally close and fragmented result, keeping voters and analysts in suspense until the very last moment. The preliminary outcome points to one of the most divided parliaments in Dutch history.
• The election was defined by a tight contest among five leading parties: The race for first place remains between Rob Jetten’s D66 (Liberal Democrats) and Geert Wilders’ PVV (Right-wing populists), Dilan Yeşilgöz’s VVD (Liberal Conservatives) is on track to take third with 22 seats, followed by Frans Timmermans’ GroenLinks–PvdA (Labour-Green alliance) with 20 seats. Henri Bontenbal’s CDA (Christian Democrats) is expected to secure 19 seats – a remarkable rebound from just five in the previous parliament.
• The campaign remained fiercely competitive until the final day, driven by a record number of undecided voters and intense competition for the political centre. Broader voter fatigue also played a role, following years of instability – from the collapse of the Schoof Cabinet to months of political paralysis. Dutch voters now appeared torn between continuity, protest, and pragmatism.
• Forming a new coalition government will once again prove complex. A majority of at least 76 seats is prefered in the 150-seat House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer), meaning a coalition of at least four or five parties will be necessary to secure a governing majority.
• Two most plausible scenarios for a new cabinet are emerging:

1. A centre-right coalition led by D66, VVD, CDA, and joined by (at least) JA21 (Conservative Liberals – 9 seats), which together could reach 75 seat
2. A progressive-centre coalition combining GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, VVD, and CDA – though significant policy and ideological differences would need to be bridged for such a partnership to succeed.

Election results: race for first place not yet decided, Timmermans resigns

• Today, the day after election day (30 October 2025), preliminary results show D66 and PVV still neck-and-neck, both projected at 26 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives.
• The race for first place remains between Rob Jetten’s D66 (Liberal Democrats) and Geert Wilders’ PVV (Right-wing populists), both projected to emerge as the largest party. Dilan Yeşilgöz’s VVD (Liberal Conservatives) is on track to take third with 23 seats, followed by Frans Timmermans’ GroenLinks–PvdA (Labour–Green alliance) with 20 seats. Henri Bontenbal’s CDA (Christian Democrats) is expected to secure 19 seats — a remarkable rebound from just five in the previous parliament.
• D66 entered the final phase of the campaign with clear momentum. Party leader Rob Jetten, young, energetic, and pro-European, managed to turn visibility into traction. His message of renewed optimism and a forward-looking Netherlands within Europe resonated strongly with urban, younger, and centrist voters seeking a break from years of governing fatigue.
• For the VVD, the campaign became something of a comeback story. After a difficult start last summer, marked by internal doubts about her leadership, Dilan Yeşilgöz managed to steady the party and reassert its relevance on the political stage.
• Despite hopes that the continued cooperation and merger under the GroenLinks–PvdA banner would yield a stronger result, the outcome proved disappointing. Under Frans Timmermans, the alliance lost four seats compared to 2023. Following the result, Timmermans announced his resignation as party leader, saying he wanted to “give the new generation a chance.”
• The PVV remains a decisive force in Dutch politics. Despite being excluded by most parties as a potential coalition partner, Geert Wilders maintained a loyal voter base and led several polls throughout the campaign. Meanwhile, the CDA regained ground, ending with 19 seats – up from five – attracting traditional voters seeking moderation and stability.
• This election was defined by undecided voters and shifting allegiances. The final days of the campaign turned into a contest of tone and trust – over who could credibly lead the Netherlands out of political stagnation.
• Voter mobility was striking: roughly 30% of parliamentary seats are expected to shift to a different party, matching levels of volatility last seen in 2002 during the rise of Pim Fortuyn. This time, movements were most visible in peripheral regions such as Twente and Friesland, where traditional loyalties eroded and PVV and CDA competed for former NSC (National Conservatives) and BBB (Farmer–Citizen Movement) voters.
• The former Schoof I Cabinet appears to have been punished by voters for its brief 11-month tenure, with all coalition parties losing ground in exit polls: PVV down 12 seats, VVD down 1, BBB down 3, and NSC expected to drop from 20 seats to none.
• In contrast, major cities such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Utrecht showed more stable voting patterns, with GroenLinks–PvdA and D66 maintaining relative strength.
• Voter turnout reached 78.4%, slightly higher than in the 2023 general election (77.9%). The final results are expected on 7 November.

Forming a new coalition government will be very challenging

• Forming a new coalition government will be difficult, as at least 76 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives are needed for a majority. This means a coalition of at least four or five parties will be required. Relations between several party leaders are strained, and multiple parties – including GroenLinks–PvdA, CDA, and D66 – have reiterated that they will not join a government with Geert Wilders’ PVV.
• VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz has called for finding “common ground” to prevent a Timmermans-led cabinet. She appears to favour a centre-right coalition of D66, VVD, CDA, and JA21, although this combination currently falls short of a majority with around 75 projected seats. Another possible scenario is a centrist coalition of D66, VVD, GroenLinks–PvdA, and CDA, which would yield a workable majority of roughly 86 seats.
• The 2023–2024 government formation serves as a cautionary tale. That process lasted 223 days, resulting in a four-party coalition of PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB under Prime Minister Dick Schoof, which ultimately collapsed over migration policy. With those lessons still fresh, the next formation is likely to prioritise stability over ideology.
• In the Netherlands, coalition governments are the norm, as no single party has ever held an outright majority. By convention, the leader of the largest party becomes prime minister, while the second-largest party traditionally provides the minister of finance. Unlike in countries such as Germany, the Netherlands has no electoral threshold, resulting in a highly fragmented parliament where some parties hold only two or three seats.
• Surveys show that more than a third of voters would like to see D66 included in the next cabinet, followed by VVD, CDA, and GroenLinks–PvdA. Regardless of who leads, coalition talks will likely focus on familiar issues: migration, housing shortages, healthcare affordability, and the future of Dutch climate policy. Underlying these debates is a broader challenge – how to restore trust in institutions after years of fragile coalitions, political standstills, and shifting majorities.

Next steps (indicative)

• Party leaders are expected to meet in The Hague coming Friday (31 October), to discuss the first steps of the formation process. The largest party will nominate an explorer (verkenner) to map potential coalition combinations, whose report is expected by mid-November. The Electoral Council is set to determine the official election results on November 7.
• The newly elected Members of Parliament will be sworn in on 12 November, followed by the election of a new speaker on 19 November. A parliamentary debate on the explorer’s findings will take place later that week. This will lead to the appointment of an informateur, whose role is pivotal in exploring coalition possibilities.
• Following the informateur’s final report, a formateur will be appointed, often the future Prime Minister, to assemble the new cabinet. If negotiations progress swiftly, a coalition agreement could be reached in the first months of 2026, though recent experience suggests a longer process is likely.