Minority government in the making presents coalition agreement: final phase of formation begins

With the publication of the final report by informateur Mariëtte Letschert and the coalition agreement ‘Getting started’, the formation of the cabinet has entered a decisive phase. D66, VVD and CDA have reached agreement on the substantive basis for the formation of a minority cabinet. The coming weeks will be dominated by the completion of the formation and the composition of the cabinet, in a political landscape without fixed majorities.

A conscious choice to govern with changing majorities

In his final report, informateur Letschert concludes that a majority coalition with D66, VVD and CDA proved unfeasible. Alternatives involving additional parties foundered on differences in substance and political preferences. Against this backdrop, the three parties consciously opted for a minority cabinet without a fixed tolerance partner – a historically unusual construction in Dutch politics. This choice was partly motivated by the desire to quickly form a new cabinet in a period of geopolitical uncertainty and major social challenges.

At the same time, Letschert emphasises that a minority cabinet functions fundamentally differently from a traditional majority cabinet. There is no fixed parliamentary support, which means that the cabinet will have to organise support for each dossier in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. She therefore recommends involving parliament in policy-making at an early stage, as early as the preparatory phase. In practice, this means that policy and legislation will be established through shifting majorities and that the focus of decision-making will shift partly from the cabinet to parliament, with more room for substantive input from opposition parties.

Coalition agreement as a framework, not as an end point

The coalition agreement “Getting started” forms the substantive basis for the coming cabinet term, but is explicitly framework-setting in nature. The agreements outline the direction and financial preconditions, while several dossiers remain open for further elaboration and political adjustment during the term of office. This is in line with the minority nature of the intended cabinet, which will have to gain support from opposition parties on a subject-by-subject basis.

Financially, the coalition has opted for strict budgetary discipline: the budget deficit must remain structurally below 2 per cent. Major investments – particularly in defence and security – will be combined with reforms and increased burdens. The focus of this task is clearly on households, through higher personal contributions and interventions in healthcare and social security. Businesses are also making a contribution, including through the new “freedom contribution”, but to a relatively lesser extent and with a view to maintaining competitiveness.

Focus on economic growth and earning capacity

At the same time, the coalition is explicitly committed to economic growth and strengthening earning capacity. The ambition is to build “the strongest economy in Europe”, with a leading growth target of 1.5 per cent per annum on average. Calm, stability and predictability form the basis for economic policy, with more room for private investment and entrepreneurship.

For the business community, this translates into a focus on innovation, digitisation and an attractive business climate. The expat scheme will be retained and the national CO₂ tax for industry will be scrapped. Innovation will be stimulated through, among other things, an expansion of the WBSO (Research and Development Tax Credit), with a special focus on AI and new technologies. In addition, the coalition will continue to focus on reducing regulatory pressure and improving feasibility, while the contribution of businesses via the freedom contribution will be further elaborated in consultation with business organisations.

Cooperation, enforceability and political culture

The proposed cabinet explicitly positions itself as a coalition government, in which enforceability, administrative stability and support in parliament and society are central. Without fixed majorities, the pace and outcome of each dossier will depend in part on negotiations with opposition parties. The coalition agreement gives concrete form to this commitment to good governance, including through the introduction of a national lobby register to increase transparency in the weighing of interests, with an explicit focus on a practical and workable structure for both the government and interest groups. In addition, D66, VVD and CDA want to make the Open Government Act more applicable and are committed to involving local authorities, civil society organisations and advisory bodies in policy-making at an early stage.

According to informateur Letschert, the success of a minority cabinet with a different political culture stands or falls on its focus on content, but constructive relationships. This requires coalition parties and ministers to adopt a modest attitude, a willingness to compromise and constant attention to feasibility. The chosen structure thus offers opportunities for broader political cooperation and greater substantive involvement of parliament, but at the same time places high demands on discipline, flexibility and mutual trust.

What now?

On Tuesday 3 February, the House of Commons will debate the final report of informateur Letschert and the coalition agreement. During this debate, motions may be submitted and D66 leader Rob Jetten is expected to be appointed as formateur. He will then consider the composition of the cabinet and the distribution of portfolios. The parties are not yet announcing anything about the distribution and filling of ministerial posts.

CDA leader Bontenbal has indicated that he will remain in the House of Representatives. It is not yet clear whether VVD leader Yeşilgöz will join the cabinet. Informateur Letschert has not ruled out a move to the cabinet either. Once the formation process has been completed, the new cabinet is expected to be sworn in by the King at the end of February, followed by a debate on the government statement.

Outlook

The coalition agreement provides a clear political and financial framework, but the real test will come after the cabinet takes office. The combination of a minority construction, ambitious plans and an emphasis on cooperation makes this formation unique. How effective this model will be in practice will soon become apparent as soon as the first dossiers are submitted to parliament.