Habemus papabile? How a pope is chosen – and what lobbying has to do with it

With the death of Pope Francis on April 21, an era has come to an end. On April 26, the world will turn its eyes to the Vatican for his funeral. Behind closed doors, the search for his successor has already begun. The conclave is a ritual steeped in centuries-old traditions. At first glance, it leaves little room for something like lobbying. Yet even the most closed process in the world contains respectful elements of political influence and strategic positioning.

The conclave: closed, ceremonial – but not random

Within 15 to 20 days after the pope’s death, up to 120 eligible cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel. They are cut off from the outside world and vote until someone achieves a two-thirds majority. Then, white smoke signals to the world: habemus papam – we have a pope. Formally, any baptized male Catholic can become pope. In practice, the choice is usually a cardinal, typically aged between 60 and 75, with international experience and theological authority. But how does someone rise to the top of the list?

What does lobbying have to do with it?

The word “lobbying” may feel out of place in this setting. There are no lobby registers, no formal interest groups, no campaign machines. And yet: no one becomes pope simply by aspiring to the position the moment the previous one dies. As in politics, effective influence begins long before the actual debate. The same applies in Rome. It’s all about building long-term relationships, visibility, and trust – the very ingredients of strategic advocacy.

Modern lobbying techniques?

• Framing and reputation building: in the years before a conclave, candidates shape a recognizable profile.
• Networks and alliances: groups of cardinals with shared views and preferences start forming alliances.
• Informal influence: preferences are subtly shared during international gatherings and synods.
• Timing and discretion: influence only works when deployed with the right timing and subtlety.

Timing is everything

Anyone who started building a network, visibility, or positioning after April 21 is too late. Papal appointments are the result of years, sometimes decades, of preparation. Just as with a political bill, lobbying doesn’t begin the day before the debate—it begins long before. Some of those now mentioned as frontrunners – such as Cardinal Tagle, Ambongo, Zuppi, or Hollerich – have been working for years on developing their vision, increasing visibility, and gaining support.

Between faith and strategy

The election of a pope remains a mysterious and spiritual process. Cardinals pray for the inspiration of the Holy Spirit, not for the backing of a lobbyist. And yet, even within this sacred context, we respectfully observe human patterns of influence, profiling, and strategic positioning.