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Six months of Schoof – keep going?

By Cees Westera and Rosalie van Gilst

02-01-2025

On January 2, it is exactly six months since the Schoof Cabinet took office. A special cabinet, put in place by the political leaders of PVV (far-right), VVD (Conservative Liberals), NSC (Social Conservatives) and BBB (Farmer-Citizen Movement), which would act “extra-parliamentary” (flexible but unconventional structure) under the leadership of a prime minister who had never been in the political spotlight himself. A recipe for failure, many said six months ago.

Six months later, it is a good time to take a look, is this cabinet indeed doomed to fail or can we conclude that this cabinet might last longer than many people think?

How does it seem to go?

At first glance, it doesn’t all go that smoothly. In the first six months, two (NSC) state secretaries left, in both cases mutual relationships and (mis)management seemed to play a role. Nor can the discussion of the budgets be called a large success. The most striking example is the Budget of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, which was negotiated until the last minute, with the result that there was sufficient support in the House of Representatives for this budget. However, because money was taken away from healthcare in these negotiations at the last minute, other processes are now in danger of being jeopardized. Various organizations have stepped out of negotiations around a healthcare agreement. In addition, the Senate wants to ask questions on January 21 about the consequences for healthcare before they even discuss the budget.

And the introduction of strict asylum legislation is also going differently than at least the largest coalition party had hoped. While the intention was to tighten asylum legislation within a few months through crisis legislation, the new plans were only approved by the Council of Ministers just before Christmas and will now remain part of the political discussion for months in order to come through the Council of State and both Houses.

In addition, discussions about nitrogen will follow and with the Tax Plan and the need to quickly find financial coverage to cancel the VAT increase on sports and culture, there is a hefty mortgage on the upcoming Spring Memorandum.

Quick collapse?

Based on this, it seems that this cabinet still has a good chance of collapsing soon, but are there also indications pointing to the contrary? Public Matters has compiled some data to objectively compare the past six months of this cabinet with previous years and thus assess whether a fundamental basis is perhaps being laid for a slightly longer ride.

Opposition

Opposition can be made objectifiable by looking at the number of motions, amendments and parliamentary questions submitted. You could argue that the more of these are submitted, the more opposition there is against a sitting cabinet. Let us take a look and compare

Schoof I

Jul-Dec 2024

Rutte IV

Jul-Dec 2023

Rutte IV

Jul-Dec 2022

Rutte III

Jul-Dec 2021

Rutte III

Jul-Dec 2020

Parliamentary questions 1076 825 1304 1425 1481
Motions 1788 1362 2596 2228 2163
Amendments 325 195 318 187 373

It is wise not to look at the last half of 2023. Then there was a caretaker cabinet in the run-up to the elections in November. If we leave that aside and compare the first half year of the Schoof with previous years, it is striking that fewer motions and parliamentary questions have been submitted in the past six months. In any case, the number of amendments is no higher than in many other periods. With this, one could conclude that there is still less official opposition to this cabinet than there seems to be at first glance. This may have laid a foundation for not failing.

Formation duration

In 2017, Tilburg economists Präst and Van Dalen cautiously concluded that the duration of the formation has a positive effect on the length of a cabinet’s term of office. The fact that the Schoof Cabinet with 223 days is well above the average number of 94 days could therefore also mean a cautious prediction of a long term of office.

“Keep going”?

In the 80s of the last century, jury member of the Soundmixshow, Barry Stevens became known for his statement ‘keep going’ (“vooral doorgaan”). By this he meant that a candidate had to do everything to develop further and that he or she should not let anything or anyone distract him. The beginning of January is also the time to think about the future. The Prime Minister’s New Year’s resolution could be to learn from the past 6 months and in the spirit of Barry Stevens, “keep going”.

Photo by Valerie Kuypers

"Public Matters has compiled some data to objectively compare the past six months of this cabinet with previous years and thus assess whether a fundamental basis is perhaps being laid for a slightly longer ride."

Public matters

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