German lobbyist Dominik Meier on Germany’s election results: “The AfD will hang over the new government like a sword of Damocles.”

Last Sunday, the world’s attention was on Germany. In these geopolitically uncertain times, German voters had their say. The conservatives (CDU/CSU) led by Friedrich Merz emerged as the largest party (28.52%) and, together with the Social Democrats (SPD, 16.41%), secured a narrow majority. The far-right AfD doubled its vote share, becoming the second-largest party in Germany with 20.8% of the vote. A coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD seems inevitable, partly because the CDU/CSU had already ruled out the AfD as a potential coalition partner before the elections. What do these results mean for Germany? What role will the new German government take in Europe, now that the continent is being shaken by developments in the United States? And what should lobbyists and interest groups keep in mind?

Public Matters spoke with Dominik Meier, an experienced top lobbyist and owner of Miller & Meier, a lobbying consultancy based in Berlin.

Dominik, you are a highly experienced lobbyist in Germany and Europe, but first and foremost, you are a German voter. How do you view the outcome of the elections?

“I think a catastrophe has been avoided,” Meier says, referring to the fact that despite its significant electoral gains, the far-right AfD did not become the largest party. “The turnout of 82% was unprecedentedly high; Germany was truly mobilized this election to make their voices heard. There was a lot of emotion this time.” Meier sees a coalition between the conservatives (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) as almost inevitable, but he already calls it a “coalition of the desperate.” He believes this period is the last chance for the political center to stop the rise of both the far left and far right.

A new coalition is still far off. While discussions between the two parties must now begin—expected Chancellor Friedrich Merz wants to form a government before Easter—Meier expects the negotiations to be tough. “On migration, for example, the Social Democrats will likely move toward stricter policies, but they won’t go as far as the conservatives would like.” The fact that all SPD members must approve the coalition agreement will further complicate the negotiations, Meier believes. However, he sees no alternative, so the parties will have to find a way forward.

What will the coming weeks look like?

Exploratory talks between CDU/CSU and SPD will begin this week. Friedrich Merz wants to move quickly, partly due to the uncertain geopolitical situation and the need for Europe to reposition itself more strongly and cohesively on the global stage. “We expect a coalition agreement in April or May, followed shortly by clarity on who will take on which cabinet positions.”

What changes will CDU/CSU and SPD bring to Germany, given that they have governed together before? And what role will Germany play in Europe under Friedrich Merz’s leadership?

“The world looks completely different today. Four years ago, climate change was the top election issue in Germany, leading to major gains for the Greens. Now, climate concerns have been overshadowed by migration, economic issues, and European security. These themes will largely shape the coalition agreement, with a constant balancing act between investing in security and the economy without undermining social welfare. You can only spend a euro once.”

Meier expects the new government to take a tough stance on migration, a key priority for CDU/CSU. Economically, Germany is struggling, so measures at both the national and European levels can be expected, such as reducing legislation and regulations to create a more competitive international market. A reduction in EU regulations is anticipated as a priority for the new government, and it remains to be seen what this means for existing agreements like the Green Deal.

In foreign policy, Meier expects Germany to take on a leading role in Europe, as Friedrich Merz has explicitly stated that Europe must become more independent from the United States. Meier also expects that relations between Germany and France will improve under Merz’s chancellorship compared to his predecessor Olaf Scholz. “Germany and France will form a new team and play a bigger role in making Europe stronger and more independent—the pressure from Trump on Europe to change is enormous. The future of the European Union is at stake.”

Germany and the Netherlands have a strong friendship, Meier notes, and that is unlikely to change under this government.

Although the AfD is unlikely to be in government, what influence will they have on German politics?

“If the AfD does not govern—which seems to be the case—their influence will still be significant. They are the elephant in the room, hanging over the new coalition like a sword of Damocles. The pressure on the government will be enormous from day one.”

“Don’t underestimate this: the far-left party Die Linke also performed well in this election. Together, the AfD and Die Linke hold a blocking minority (Sperrminorität) in the Bundestag, meaning they control more than a third of the seats. This allows them to block legislation requiring a two-thirds majority.” This could become a major obstacle for the new government, as Meier does not expect either party to cooperate with centrist parties to help them form a majority.

What was the sentiment among large companies before the election, and what is the prevailing sentiment now?

“I see that large companies are relatively positive about the fact that CDU/CSU is the largest party and will likely be in government. CDU/CSU is pro-business and has made strong campaign promises to boost the economy through innovation, reducing bureaucracy, and lowering energy costs.”

1. Regulation and bureaucracy: German businesses are increasingly entangled in European and national regulations, combined with a bureaucratic government. Meier points to EU directives like the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which require companies to report on sustainability and conduct impact assessments on human rights and environmental effects. According to Meier, German laws implementing these EU directives are sometimes even stricter, making them unmanageable for businesses. He expects the new government to ease enforcement and push back against additional regulations from Brussels.
2. High energy costs: Germany has never been known for cheap energy, and since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy prices have become a major issue for businesses. The new government is expected to lower transmission costs. Meier believes this is likely, as companies have pushed hard for this change, and many political parties included it in their platforms.
3. Skilled labor shortages: there is a severe shortage of skilled workers. While some positions can be filled by European labor migrants, stricter immigration laws make this more difficult. How the new government will balance these challenges remains to be seen, says Meier.

“In my conversations with businesses, I also notice their concern about the rise of extremist political parties, particularly the AfD. From an economic perspective, the AfD is not seen as a constructive party; their economic plans are even considered disastrous for Germany. Experts say AfD’s policies would isolate Germany economically. The party advocates for a ‘Dexit’—leaving the EU and returning to the Deutsche Mark.” Elections are a key indicator for businesses of what the coming years will look like, says Meier. This is another reason why there is immense pressure on centrist parties to halt the rise of extremists—otherwise, companies might consider leaving Germany.

The coming years may be decisive on many fronts. What is your advice to lobbyists and interest groups?

“The election results give us, as lobbyists, a clear mandate: fight for democracy!” Meier warns that democracy is under pressure, not just because extremist parties oppose democratic values but also because people increasingly misunderstand how the democratic system works, leading to disengagement. He believes it is the responsibility of everyone within the system to raise awareness. Lobbyists, in particular, have a crucial role to play: “We must explain how democracy works, what lobbying entails, and why democracy weakens when decision-making is not based on facts and rational arguments.”

Dominik Meier, photo by Andreas Schwarz