Campaign leaders for the Dutch parliamentary elections look back at Stichting Machiavelli.

Campaign leaders reflect on the Dutch parliamentary elections at Stichting Machiavelli

On the morning after the parliamentary elections, Stichting Machiavelli traditionally looked back on the campaign. Under the moderation of Fons Lambie (RTL) and Remco Meijer (de Volkskrant), campaign leaders Bart van den Brink (CDA), Robert van Asten (D66), Silvio Erkens (VVD), Laura Vissenberg (GL-PvdA), and Michiel Hoogeveen (JA21) reflected on the hectic election campaign in a packed Nieuwspoort Press Centre. They discussed the neck-and-neck race between D66 and PVV, the election results of the various political parties, key campaign moments, and campaign strategies. The campaign leaders also drew valuable lessons together for future campaigns. Although PVV and BBB were also invited to participate in the debate, they did not attend.

First reactions to the results: optimism and disappointment

The debate opened with initial reactions to the (provisional) election results. D66 emerged as the big winner, although it was announced during the debate that the PVV had just narrowly overtaken them again. Nevertheless, D66 is seen as the leading candidate to head the upcoming coalition talks, with party leader Rob Jetten possibly becoming the youngest prime minister in Dutch history. A reason for optimism, confirmed by campaign leader Van Asten: “Our message of optimism resonated — it can be done!”.

The CDA also gained a significant number of seats. Campaign leader Van den Brink said: “We’ve made our comeback. After the previous elections, we took time to reflect and set a new course. That’s now paying off.” JA21 was also considered one of the winners of these elections. Campaign leader Hoogeveen said: “It’s a reward for hard work. Joost Eerdmans has shown that even as a small party, you can achieve a lot.”

The VVD lost a limited number of seats, resulting in a historically poor result. Nevertheless, this outcome was celebrated as a victory, as campaign leader Erkens admitted: “The result is better than we thought — we had practically planned our own funeral.” The blow hit much harder at GroenLinks-PvdA. The party failed to gain ground as the largest opposition party, even losing five seats — a reason for party leader Frans Timmermans to resign immediately. According to campaign leader Vissenberg, GL-PvdA “was in the running until the very last moment to become the largest, but strategic voting for D66 cost us points at the end.”

Key moments during the campaign

Several clear “game changers” emerged from the discussion. First, the initial RTL debate — where D66 leader Jetten was invited to participate after Wilders cancelled — was seen as a turning point. According to Van Asten, Jetten performed strongly, boosting their poll numbers — something GL-PvdA also acknowledged.

All parties agreed that the publication of the economic analyses of party programmes played a significant role this time. These analyses received considerable attention in debates and became a topic of contention among parties. D66 argued this contributed to a more substantive campaign, while JA21 countered that focusing too much on these calculations was misguided, as “radical changes don’t fit into the CPB’s framework, and voters aren’t interested in nitpicking over decimal points.”

Finally, Wilders’ absence during much of the campaign was considered an important factor — it allowed more space for others, and when he did appear, he came under collective fire. Moreover, unlike two years ago, many parties had already ruled out cooperating with him in advance, making it harder for him to sell his promises convincingly.

Looking ahead

When asked about the upcoming coalition formation, all parties remained tight-lipped. Only JA21 hinted that they were “ready to take responsibility.” The other parties stuck to brief statements, focusing first on their initial post-election caucus meetings. When asked whether a coalition could be formed before Christmas, D66 campaign leader Van Asten jokingly replied: “It can be done!”

Missed the debate?
You can watch it [here].

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