Budgetary advice in election season – the ‘menu’ for a next cabinet

The Dutch political year 2025 is once again a turbulent year. After the fall of the cabinet just before the summer recess – just like two years ago – the Netherlands is preparing for early elections in October. While parties are refining their strategies and finalizing their programs, work is already underway behind the scenes on the financial and economic frameworks that will guide the policy of a new cabinet.

Two advisory bodies play a prominent role in this process: the Study Group on Budgetary Space (SBR) and the Central Economic Commission (CEC). These bodies work at the request of the cabinet and the House of Representatives to provide recommendations that will form the financial foundation for budget plans, the campaign, and the coalition talks. Precisely because they rise above day-to-day politics, their reports serve as a kind of reality check: a financial benchmark that parties and a future cabinet can – and must – compare themselves to.

The Study Group on Budgetary Space: financial ground rules

The Study Group on Budgetary Space (SBR) is an interdepartmental group of senior civil servants and external experts. Since the 1950s, this group has advised every incoming cabinet on fiscal policy for the upcoming governing period. Their focus is primarily on the principles (or rules) of future financial policy: how much fiscal room is available in the next cabinet term, what constitutes a responsible deficit, and how should the Netherlands deal with windfalls and setbacks?

In June, the current caretaker cabinet asked the SBR to issue advice before the elections. This allows political parties to incorporate the recommendations into their programs, and it enables the CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis) to include the principles in its calculations. That matters: for example, if the SBR advises reducing debt structurally or not using windfalls for tax relief, it establishes a clear financial context. Parties can deviate from this, but they will need to justify it well.

The upcoming report from the SBR is expected – given the parallels with the elections two years ago – to appear in two parts: first a main report around or shortly after the summer, so the CPB can begin work, and later a more detailed annex for the coalition negotiations. In this way, the group ensures that both voters and negotiators have better insight into what is feasible.

The Central Economic Commission: substantive long-term priorities

While the SBR defines the financial scope, the Central Economic Commission (CEC) focuses on the substance of economic policy. This commission – composed of representatives from socio-economic ministries, planning bureaus, and De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank) – provides strategic advice on the challenges of the coming years.

The CEC was given a broad mandate this year. The cabinet asked for advice on the structural issues facing the Netherlands, with particular attention to pressure on the foundations of economic growth. Specifically, the cabinet mentioned declining productivity and the effects of demographic shifts, both of which significantly impact long-term prosperity.

CEC reports are typically published after the elections – as the advice is primarily intended to support the next cabinet – but in this case, the request was for the report to be available already in October. The likely reason: so that parties can (or must) compare their own choices with the analysis during the campaign. After all, topics the CEC deems urgent and unavoidable are likely to surface sooner or later during coalition talks.

A guide in uncertain times

The fact that these recommendations must be produced in a short timeframe does not make them less relevant. On the contrary, in a period where elections come earlier than planned, it is valuable to have a shared starting point on financial scope and economic priorities. In a way, the reports act as a menu for a next cabinet: they provide insight into available options, their associated costs, and the choices that are bound to come up.

The upcoming reports from the SBR and CEC are unlikely to dominate the headlines. But for advocates and stakeholders, they are important documents. Where election programs and debates reveal parties’ ambitions and priorities, these reports expose how much room there really is to turn plans into action. Anyone who wants to understand if – and how – campaign proposals make their way into a coalition agreement would do well to follow these recommendations closely. After all: if you know the menu, you won’t be surprised by what ends up on your plate.