Trump’s re-election: time to recalibrate public affairs strategy?!

President Donald Trump has once again clinched the presidency, this time by a majority of votes. His re-election carries significant implications for public affairs professionals, who now find themselves preparing for a second term under a figure whose first four years upended traditional governance and societal, political dynamics. Time for some initial reflections based on my recent visit to the US during the general elections. Obviously, with similar changes for public affairs professionals as those experienced after the Dutch general election in 2023.

Benefit of hindsight?

Trump’s win in 2016, initially viewed as a fluke by many, caught many off-guard – including both the political establishment as well as the public affairs community. In contrast, this time he has garnered an even clearer mandate, signaling both continuity and change in how professionals in the public affairs field might approach their work in the years ahead.

In 2016, Trump’s victory was met with shock. The public affairs community, accustomed to traditional power structures and norms of decorum, struggled to adjust to a president who communicated directly, often controversially, via Twitter now ‘X’, and who was willing to upend long-standing policies on trade, immigration, and international relations. For many in public affairs, it was a challenging and unpredictable time, requiring a rapid shift in strategies, messaging, and stakeholder engagement. In DC it boosted the PA community and investment alike. Many comparisons can be made with the political changes that occurred in other countries where similar leaders won national elections – including in the Netherlands. Now, as Trump re-enters the White House, public affairs professionals have both the benefit of hindsight and the challenge of navigating an even more deeply polarized political landscape.

Lessons from 2016: a rocky adjustment period

Trump’s 2016 victory was widely perceived as unexpected, especially since most polls had predicted a win for Hillary Clinton. The public affairs community was largely unprepared for a president who disdained convention and actively reshaped the role of the presidency itself. Public affairs professionals, whether in corporate sectors, nonprofit advocacy, or government relations, were immediately tasked with understanding how to influence policy in a Washington transformed by Trump’s disruptive style.

In particular, Trump’s unfiltered use of social media bypassed traditional gatekeepers in public affairs. While previous administrations had carefully mediated communication through official channels, Trump used Twitter, X and his own (social) media channels to engage directly with the public, media, companies, and policymakers. This led to a fast-paced, often chaotic information environment, where public affairs teams had to stay on constant alert to respond to tweets and messages that could shift markets, spur protests, or change legislative priorities overnight. Traditional lobbying and advocacy methods, which typically involve longer cycles of relationship-building and deliberation, faced challenges in a White House where decisions often seemed spontaneous or impulsive.

Furthermore, Trump’s preference for headline-grabbing actions over nuanced policy discussions presented a challenge for the public affairs community, which typically relied on providing fact-based, strategic advice to influence policy. For instance, his moves on trade tariffs and immigration policy were often swift and surprising, leaving organizations to quickly adjust their strategies without ample time for analysis or planning.

Drain the (lobbying) swamp?

In 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to “drain the swamp,” a pledge that resonated with voters frustrated by Washington’s political elite and the perceived influence of lobbyists and public affairs professionals on policy. His call to clean up what he framed as “corruption” centered on curbing the power of lobbyists and reducing what he described as undue influence of special interests over government. His win in 2016 was seen as a direct affront to the established political class, and he vowed to enact reforms that would hold lobbyists and public affairs professionals to higher ethical standards, especially regarding government access and influence.

Upon taking office, Trump’s administration introduced measures aimed at fulfilling this campaign promise. He signed several executive orders to do so e.g. to prevent so called revolving doors. While this move was lauded by his supporters, it also added pressure on public affairs professionals and lobbyists to adjust to a new, more restrictive environment.

For the public affairs community, this “drain the swamp” rhetoric created an atmosphere of heightened scrutiny and suspicion around their work. In the early days of his presidency, public affairs professionals found themselves contending with stricter access protocols and the perception that they represented the “old guard” of Washington—elements of the establishment Trump had committed to dismantling. Some in the public affairs field even saw their influence curtailed as the administration favored industry insiders who shared Trump’s populist agenda rather than traditional lobbyists or advocates.

This rhetoric and these early regulatory changes sent a strong signal to public affairs professionals that the traditional means of engagement with government were undergoing a transformation. Many had to quickly adapt by aligning more with the administration’s goals and methods, often shifting their approach to appear more transparent, or focusing on grassroots and direct public engagement over behind-the-scenes lobbying efforts.

2024: Trump 2.0 and a changed public affairs landscape

Fast forward to 2024, Trump’s re-election by a majority of voters could suggest renewed support for his agenda, including the anti-establishment “drain the swamp” narrative. Public affairs professionals should prepare for continued scrutiny and possible new reforms aimed at curbing lobbyist influence. However, many in the field are now better equipped to navigate these waters, having already learned how to operate in an environment where traditional methods of influence are viewed skeptically and where direct public messaging, grassroots mobilization, and coalition-building are increasingly important.

In any case, the public affairs community seems more prepared. Today’s professionals are accustomed to the need for agility, rapid response, and resilience in an era of constant media scrutiny and direct presidential messaging. However, Trump’s 2024 victory by a majority of votes suggests a new level of stability and voter endorsement for his approach, which may have different implications for the public affairs landscape.

One major shift is the recognition that Trump’s agenda seems slightly more predictable. Over his first term, Trump established patterns in his approach to trade, immigration, and foreign relations, all of which provide cues for how he might govern in his second and last term. With a clearer majority backing his policies, public affairs professionals have some insight into which initiatives will likely be prioritized. Additionally, Trump’s alignment with conservative, populist, and nationalist agendas gives a clearer sense of his legislative goals. This knowledge should allow organizations to plan more effectively, even as they prepare for Trump’s often unconventional methods of governance and communications.

However, a 2024 Trump presidency will not be without its own challenges. The impact of increased polarization in both politics and society is clear. As Trump has mobilized both passionate supporters and critics, the public affairs landscape has evolved into one where issues can quickly become politically charged. Companies, their CEOs and other organizations that need something from the federal government must tread carefully, balancing their public positions on policies with potential backlash from customers, employees, or shareholders with divergent views.

Finally, with Trump’s communication methods likely to continue through direct and often divisive platforms, organizations must remain vigilant in managing both reputation risks and opportunities. They will need to engage stakeholders across the spectrum, taking into account the heightened scrutiny and political sensitivity surrounding corporate and nonprofit decisions that are now par for the course in the Trump era.

Three Recommendations for Public Affairs Professionals Moving Forward

Given Trump’s re-election, here are three initial strategies when managing government relations:

1. Recalibrate and implement flexible strategic plans: the pace of change under Trump will likely remain fast. Public affairs professionals should recalibrate scenario-based strategies that allow them to respond swiftly to policy shifts, changes in public opinion, or new executive actions. Building contingency plans and updating them regularly will be crucial in navigating Trump’s second term.

2. Enhance monitoring and social listening capabilities: in an environment where presidential and political messaging can happen instantly, real-time monitoring of social and traditional media is essential. Public affairs professionals should invest in social listening tools to track trends, monitor emerging issues, and gauge public sentiment. Being aware of changes in the political atmosphere will allow for faster, more effective responses before taking instant action.

3. Foster personal networks, bipartisan relationships and coalition building: as polarization deepens, public affairs professionals should seek to maintain (bipartisan) networks to advocate for their causes effectively. Building coalitions across the political spectrum can help ensure that key issues are represented regardless of political shifts. Strong political relationships in Congress, both with allies and across the aisle, will also provide critical leverage points for engaging the administration constructively. This includes extending the focus on a State level, instead of just the Federal government.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Trump’s re-election by a majority of the Electoral College as well as the popular vote, heralds a new chapter for public affairs management in the US, as well as for public affairs professionals working for international companies operating in the US. While 2016 may have been characterized by the chaos of adjustment, the experience gained since then equips public affairs professionals to adapt with greater agility. The similarities in how public affairs professionals had to recalibrate government relations strategies following the outcome of the general election in the Netherlands on November 22, 2023, are obvious.